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How many trees does a new neighborhood actually need? We did the math for Bosonohy.

Lenka Foltýnová, Climate Resilience Specialist
Lenka Foltýnová
13/07/2026
  • 3-30-300
  • Adaptation
  • UpGreen
Planning a new neighborhood? Our new 3-30-300 development module calculates exactly how many trees are needed, what size they should be, and where they will have the greatest long term impact. See how we applied it in Brno Bosonohy to design greener, more climate resilient development.
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Development projects usually happen in this order: buildings first, parking lots second, and greenery gets squeezed in wherever there happens to be space left over. The result is often trees planted too close to façades, too small to cool anything, or in numbers that simply don’t fit the plan.

That’s why we’ve expanded our 3-30-300 rule analysis with a new module that looks forward. Directly at planned developments and tells a developer or municipality exactly how many trees, of what size, and in which specific spots need to be planted so the neighborhood still works in 30 years of heat. We put it to full use for the first time in an analysis for Brno-Bosonohy.

Image: The Cihelna development area. Locations where tree placement has the greatest impact on compliance with Rule 3 are highlighted in red; tree canopies (radii of 2.5, 5, and 8 meters) and their appropriate placement in terms of compliance with Rules 3 and 30 are indicated in green.
Aerial map of the Cihelna development site with a red heatmap showing where new trees would have the greatest impact on Rule 3 compliance, most intense along the row of houses at the top. Dark green circles mark the optimal minimal-variant tree placements in various canopy sizes; light green circles mark additional trees needed to also meet Rule 30 coverage, filling in the remaining open space and site edges.

What the 3-30-300 rule is

3

Everyone should be able to see at least 3 mature trees from their home, workplace, or school.

30

Every neighborhood should have at least 30% tree canopy coverage.

300

A quality green space should be no more than 300 meters away on foot.
„We don’t estimate this by eye. For rule 3 we run a viewshed analysis for every single building, for rule 30 we classify tree cover within a 300 m radius of each building, and for rule 300 we calculate the walking distance to the nearest quality green space along the actual footpath network. The underlying data comes from satellite and aerial imagery, digital terrain and surface models, and building footprints.”
Petr Klimeš, Climate Data Analyst
Petr Klimeš
ASITIS.cz, Climate data analyst

Where Bosonohy stand today

Out of 1,061 buildings the analysis evaluated in Bosonohy:

  • rule 3 is met by 90% of buildings: residents have little to complain about when it comes to trees in sight,
  • rule 300 is met by only half of buildings,
  • rule 30 by a mere 23% of buildings,
  • and all three rules together by just 13% of buildings.

As almost everywhere, rule 30 is the main bottleneck: canopy coverage above 15%. A textbook picture of an outlying municipality that’s growing faster than its greenery.

„Given the current approach to construction planning (Cihelna and Slunečná), the optimal placement for the trees is right in the middle of the road. So reasonable solutions exist only if construction hasn’t started yet—widening the streets to accommodate the trees or rerouting the roads.“
Lenka Foltýnová, Climate Resilience Specialist
Lenka Foltýnová
ASITIS.cz, Climate Data Analyst

The new piece of the puzzle: what happens when a developer moves in

That diagnosis alone was already useful. The new part of the analysis goes a step further and asks: what will the planned development actually do to these numbers?

We took three specific development sites in Bosonohy — Cihelna, Mlaty, and Slunečná — and calculated:

1
how much of the site can realistically be planted with trees at all

2
how many trees, and of what size, would be needed to meet rule 30

3
and where exactly (down to which side of which street) a tree has the greatest effect on rule 3

Using the same viewshed method in reverse: instead of asking what a resident can see, we ask how many windows a tree at a given spot would actually serve.

4
The output is a map with locations color-coded by how many homes a tree there would benefit

Plus a table of recommended tree counts by canopy size.

The Mlaty development area. Locations where tree placement has the greatest impact on compliance with Rule 3 are highlighted in red; tree canopies (radii of 2.5, 5, and 8 meters) and their appropriate placement in terms of compliance with Rules 3 and 30 are indicated in green.
Image: The Mlaty development area. Locations where tree placement has the greatest impact on compliance with Rule 3 are highlighted in red; tree canopies (radii of 2.5, 5, and 8 meters) and their appropriate placement in terms of compliance with Rules 3 and 30 are indicated in green.

In the Cihelna site (3.7 ha, of which about 68% can be planted), for example, evenly meeting rule 30 across the whole area would mean over 500 small trees. Which is unrealistic in practice. The real, meaningful target is different: set aside 20–30% of the plantable area (roughly 0.5–0.75 ha) spread evenly across the site, which works out to about 60 medium-sized trees, and handle the rest with a smaller number of large, carefully placed trees where they’ll serve the most windows.
„This number helps the developer, or the municipality approving the project, get it into the plan while it’s still on the drawing board, instead of scrambling to squeeze greenery in as an afterthought once the project is already finished.“
Miloslav Kaláb, Climate Resilience Specialist
Miloslav Kaláb
ASITIS.cz, Climate Resilience Specialist

Why this matters more than it might seem

Bosonohy currently have an average annual temperature of 9.4 °C and about 11 tropical days a year. According to climate scenarios from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (ČHMÚ) and CzechGlobe, that number could rise to more than 30 tropical days a year by mid-century. A tree planted today has to survive a climate that doesn’t exist there yet. It has to be large enough to actually make a difference: a mature tree can draw as much heat out of its surroundings in a day as roughly ten commercial air-conditioning units combined, while a small cultivar with a canopy under 5 meters barely performs that function at all.

Image: The Slunečná development area. Locations where tree placement has the greatest impact on compliance with Rule 3 are highlighted in red; tree canopies (radii of 2.5, 5, and 8 meters) and their appropriate placement in terms of compliance with Rules 3 and 30 are indicated in green.
Aerial map of the Slunečná development site with a red heatmap showing where new trees would have the greatest impact on Rule 3 compliance, concentrated along the central street running through the middle of the housing rows. Dark green circles mark the optimal minimal-variant tree placements in various canopy sizes; light green circles mark additional trees needed to also meet Rule 30 coverage, filling in the gaps between houses and around the site's edges.

That’s why our planting recommendations deliberately don’t push for the maximum number of saplings, but for adequate canopy size and smart placement. Combined with blue infrastructure (retention basins, permeable surfaces, routing rainwater into green areas instead of the sewer system) that gives trees the water they need to survive drier summers.

What a developer or municipality actually gets

    • A map of the best planting spots, based on real impact on rule 3: not on wherever space happened to be left over in the plan.
    • Concrete tree counts and sizes needed to meet rule 30, plus a realistic compromise where the full version simply doesn’t fit spatially.
    • A comparison with the surrounding area, so it’s clear whether the project is actually improving the neighborhood’s numbers or just adding another problem to the statistics.
    • A decision-making basis that can be used in discussions with the building authority, the project architect, and future residents alike.

    The 3-30-300 analysis with the new development module is now available for your city or project too. Whether you’re planning a new neighborhood or simply want to know where your municipality actually stands today.

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    Lenka Foltýnová, Climate Resilience Specialist
    Author of the article

    Lenka Foltýnová

    CEO společnosti ASITIS
    Lenka Foltýnová holds a degree in mathematical biology with a focus on plant ecology and physiology. She earned her Ph.D. in Applied Bioclimatology. She works as a researcher in the field of climate change and the impact of the environment on plant physiological functions and their ecosystem services. In her work, she focuses primarily on woody plants and their species-specific responses to stressors—such as drought, heat, and air and soil pollution—which are typical in urban environments. At ASITIS, she is involved in developing methodologies for calculating and processing satellite data to assess the condition of urban green spaces and evaluating the results within a broader environmental context.
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